If we have only now managed to land on the Moon, is it a fair assumption, given that any other civilisation would be the same cosmic age as ours, that they too will have only just landed on their own Moon? Are we likely to have the same technology given that we all inhabit the same Universe at the same time?
I'm going to stop thinking! My head hurts! Time for work.
Take the chances of surviving the 'nuclear' age and the age of consumption (with it's inherant ecological problems) divide it by the chances of suffering the same fate as the Dinosaurs, the Moon (or Jupiter the other year!!) multiply that by the Darwinian principle of naturally fighting to survive (gene wise, can't help it), put that in a complicated equasion with philosophical imperitives to progress to a point where you are mature enough to reach the stars/develope faster than light drives (or at least drives that will minimise the problem of relative time) and you get the chances of real Aliens ever comming here at several trillions-to-one!
ReplyDeleteAll we can do is post out our little solid gold signs more often so that maybe, one day, somewhere, someone knows we were.
(I'll be more cheerful next time - promise!)
Some pretty big assumptions there, Commander. And not necessarily fair ones either.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean by "cosmic age"? Are you are referring to the actual age of the universe? If so, what has that to do with the contemporaneity of intelligent civilisations?
Perhaps one or more arose millions of years ago. Or maybe ours is the first ever. And if we are the first, are we late or early bloomers?
The point is, there is no reason at all to think that intelligence evolves at the same rate at the same time all over the universe. And even if it did, there is no reason to think that technological civilisations arise at the same rate.
Ask yourself; how much does "accident" play a part?
I believe current thinking is that intelligence arose on Earth cos climate changes (pfft) led to vast changes in environment, leading to a particular ape coming down from the trees and needing to survive on open plains. Don't know if that is true. But what if something like that is the case? Then ask what if those "climate changes" (or whatever) hadn't happened.
And again, "accident" ... a major part of the impetus behind landing on the Moon was political. Rocket development became urgent during WWII cos of the need to throw large explosives long distances. Then later, as we all know, politics drove the actual race to the Moon in the sixties.
Would we still have gone to the Moon if Russia had not existed in the 1960s? What if WWII hadn't happened?
Look at now ... we have technology so amazing, it makes the 1960s look ancient ... yet we have turned inward (not us personally, but you know what I mean). There is now no large impetus to explore space. Yes, there are fine minds who want to do so for the right reasons - but there are no "nasty" reasons driving it on, and throwing lots of money at it. Instead, we have development of "drone" planes and such.
What if humans are unusually aggressive? (I don't think they are, I'm just posing the question.) What if other civilisations don't fight so much? Or what if they simply lack curiosity? And so they never bother to look outwards?
What happens if social pressures stifle technology (social pressures such as religion)?
As for same level of technology .... look at our own history, Commander. Why have some human civilisations developed incredible architecture, and intricate mathematics, and beautiful literature .... while others remain primitive through century after century?
And too your assumption about the Moon. Not all planets have moons. Didn't Isaac Asimov write an essay about how lucky we were to have the Moon up there? Some believe it led to us working out how to make calendars (others hold that actually came about cos women needed to work out menstrual cycles). What if there was no Moon? What if the nearest large body in space was Venus or Mars? Would the space programme still have developed? Or would it have developed, but not so fast? What happens to those civilisations which don't have close moons?
I'm NOT shooting you down here, Woodsy, believe me. Keep thinking and asking questions - it's essential. I'm just trying to show that you made unjustifiable assumptions, and I didn't intend to come over all lectury. Honest.
By the way ... your questions are making me think too. So thank you. (smiles)
ReplyDeleteAnd...what if we ARE the Aliens our parents warned us about?
ReplyDeletePerhaps the seeding rocket that scattered our DNA was the falling thing that did-for the Dinosaurs. Huh? What then...
Having the same cold you had the other day, I think I need a lye down...far too much thinking for one morning.
'Deteli'...Our parent species!
Awwww, Mav :(( Sorry to hear it's your turn to be ill.
ReplyDeleteMy parents never warned me about aliens. Looking both ways when crossing the road, yes. Wearing clean undies, yes. But not aliens.
Now you've got me wondering what they were hiding from me ...
interesting debate folks. There;s nothing like the stuff of time and space to get the ol' grey matter massaged.
ReplyDeleteI always liked the idea of accidents moving things on. A sort of possibility drive. But what if the dice is set and everything is pre-determined? What if things are happening on a course set at the Big Bang programmed to endure until the the cold death of the Big End?
As for a 'living' universe, a bioverse I suppose, I heard that rock'n'rolling space guru Brian Cox estimate that “As a fraction of the lifespan of the universe … life, as we know it, is only possible for one thousandth of a billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billionth of a percent.” I've seen this re-calculated as life being only possible for a period of one hundred trillion years. If I've understood all this correctly then that time is now.
Welcome to the Big Eco System earthlings!
If everything is predetermined, then your questioning of it is also ... as is my response.
ReplyDeleteIf there is a window of only one hundred trillion years for life (and I do wonder what assumptions are being made for THAT calculation) ... but if there are only one hundred trillion years .... is there time to put the kettle on?
I always find that pre-determined Tea tastes best as I don't like surprises!
ReplyDeleteUnsure about THE big calculation but I further dig I will. It is my destiny and Anakin is my Father!
I love Mav's description of seeding rockets and DNA scatterers!
ReplyDeleteFascinating debate. Don't forget to add several concepts:
ReplyDelete1) There are multiple intelligent species on the planet. Will they cooperate, wipe each other out, compete peacefully? We have several intelligent species here. Humans, chimpanzees, gorillas, dolphins, whales, porpoises, wolves, dogs, cats, Bigfeet and Yeti (maybe, on the last two)
2) Does the intelligent species have tool-making abilities? Of those above, humans and chimpanzees certainly do.
3) Does the intelligent species have its niche at the top of the food chain? If there were vampires in the real world, for example, since they prey on humans, they'd be higher up in the food chain. There does exist the problem of man-eating tigers and boa constrictors and anacondas. If there were enough of THEM, they could wipe us out.
And these are just three questions to ask yourself. I've only seen people talk about the first one when they whip out the Drake equation, but their are a thousand and one things happening that need to be calculated, too.
Don't forget, we know publicly of one species (conspiracy & cryptozoological theories aside) currently in existence and one now extinct: Homo sapiens exist; Neanderthals are extinct. And more research is coming to the conclusion that homo sapiens drove the Neanderthals extinct. Despite the fact that their brains were larger than ours...
Obviously I have too much time on my hands and too many interests, LOL.
Gordon Long